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Waiting on Appointments

2026-08-28 · David H. Friedel Jr. · 4 min read

The Treasury Market May Not Be Breaking... It May Be Searching for a New Price

2026-09-24 · David H. Friedel Jr. · 13 min read

The Marginal Buyer Is a Carry Trade

2026-09-07 · David H. Friedel Jr. · 9 min read

Earnings Are a Lagging Indicator. The Labor Market Already Knows.

The aggregate penetration story misses the real trigger and the gap between when costs fall and when prices follow is what actually decides whether we get a productivity boom or managed stagnation.

2026-05-21 · David H. Friedel Jr. · 9 min read

The Asymmetry Machine

The same force compressing labor is powering the builder explosion. That is not a coincidence. It is the mechanism.

2026-03-31 · David H. Friedel Jr. · 9 min read
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