The clearing price of the 10-year

Set who is supplying long-dated debt and who is willing to hold it. The yield settles where demand for duration finally meets supply.

5.10%
calibrated to Sep 23, 2026 (5.12%)

Demand for duration Supply to absorb Today's demand
Domestic holders
Foreign buyers
Rotation from equities

What the yield is made of

Expected real policy path Inflation compensation Term premium Earnings yield minus 10-year

Policy and inflation
Anchors the near end of the expected rate path.
Where the oil shock shows up. Cyclical, and reversible.
Investment demand lifts the neutral rate itself.
Competing for capital
Net long-dated issuance after buybacks, per year.
Mostly 10 to 50 years, so it competes for the same duration buyers.
Higher multiples mean a thinner earnings yield to beat.
Keeps money in stocks until bonds pay enough.
Foreign bid and market plumbing
A home yield shrinks the hedged pickup from Treasuries.
Strength of the self-correcting pull as bonds out-yield stocks.
Tailing auctions and thin dealers. Buyers step back as yields rise.

A stylized teaching model, not a forecast or investment advice. Demand for duration comes from domestic holders, foreign buyers net of Japan's hedged alternative, and capital rotating out of equities once Treasuries approach the equity hurdle; rotation turns convex as that gap closes, which is the feedback loop that caps yields. Calibrated so the default settings clear near the 5.12% print of Sep 23, 2026. Inputs reference Fed, TIC, Reuters, Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas figures cited in the companion article.