Set the assumptions. See whether a kilowatt of AI compute costs less in orbit or on the ground, what launch price breaks even, and what launch cadence a given deployment rate demands.
Levers
Orbit
$/kg to orbit (log scale)
kg per kW of compute (SpaceX target: 10)
Years the hardware earns, not just survives
$/kW, everything except the accelerators
$/kW-year: ground stations, lasers, mission ops
% of fleet lost per year (Free Solar inputs, modular: ~0.12%)
Self-generated debris: each loss raises later losses in the shell
Orbit vs. ground: throttling, radiation, link limits
Ground
$/kWh
$M per MW (JLL 2026 global average: 11.3)
Years. SpaceX depreciates data center infrastructure over 20-25 years (S-1).